The province will increase from 1.9 to 2.05 million inhabitants in the next decade, with a 33% rise in those over 64, the highest in Andalucía.
Málaga will be the Andalusian province with the most demographic growth in the next decade, but ageing will mark this progress. According to a report by Adecco based on projections from the INE, the territory will increase from 1.917 million inhabitants in 2030 to 2.057 million in 2040, representing a gain of 140,495 people, a 7.3% increase.
The most striking figure is that concerning the older population: those over 64 years will grow by 132,845 people, reaching 534,930, an increase of 33%, the highest in all of Andalucía. In contrast, the working-age population, aged 16 to 64 years, will only add 16,938 individuals, reaching 1.28 million, a 1.3% increase.
This growth, while positive, contrasts with the general trend in the autonomous community, which will lose nearly 290,000 people of working age in the 2030s. In fact, only Almería will accompany Málaga in this increase, with 20,566 more potential workers, a 3.7% rise.
The rest of the Andalusian provinces will register significant declines: Sevilla will lose over 97,000 working-age individuals (-7.4%); Cádiz, 74,713 (-9%); Córdoba, nearly 54,000 (-11.3%); Jaén, 53,646 (-14%, the largest proportional drop); Granada, about 30,000 (-5%); and Huelva, nearly 17,000 (-5%).
The report attributes this imbalance to the gradual exit of the 'baby boomers' and part of Generation X from the active population, while the younger cohorts entering at 16 years are less numerous due to declining birth rates. In Andalucía, the population aged 50 to 64 years is now 25.5% larger than that of 20 to 34 years, and although this difference will reduce to 18% by 2040, it will still be greater.
For the whole of Spain, projections indicate a loss of 1.8 million working-age inhabitants between 2030 and 2050, while those over 64 years will increase by 4.8 million. In light of this scenario, Fundación Adecco advocates for employment inclusion as a key response.
“The demographic challenge requires expanding the available talent pool and placing inclusion at the centre of the response,” states Francisco Mesonero, general director of Fundación Adecco.
Mesonero adds that “we cannot afford to leave people with disabilities, women at risk of exclusion, and others with barriers to employment on the sidelines when companies face a growing shortage of professionals.” Therefore, the report insists on investing in employability, guidance, training, accessibility, and support, as well as retaining and updating senior talent.
For the reader in Málaga, this data implies that, although the province will continue to attract population, generational turnover will be limited. Local companies will increasingly have to rely on older professionals and groups with barriers to employment to meet their hiring needs.
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